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SHANGHAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The yuan was little changed on Friday against the dollar, but is headed
for its tenth straight weekly loss amid concerns that new tariff threatened
by President-elect Donald Trump will heighten strains on the struggling Chinese
economy.
Analysts expect the dollar to remain firm as Trump's policies are
expected to drive up U.S. inflation, but they believe Beijing will prevent the
yuan from falling too much. "We anticipate some depreciation pressure in an expected strong dollar environment," Lynn Song,
Greater China chief economist at ING, said in a note.
However, "we don't expect an intentional large-scale depreciation and think the yuan will remain a low-volatility currency vis-à-vis most other Asian currencies." The yuan was changing hands at
7.2549 per dollar around midday, little moved from the previous close.
Although the currency has rebounded from a one-year low of 7.2996 hit on Tuesday, it is poised to register its longest weekly
losing streak since 2018.
The dollar index fell to one-week low overnight and "the USD's consolidation should unwind the upside pressure building" in the
yuan, aided by ongoing attempts by China's central bank to restrain its decline, said Alvin Tan, strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
Recent data has painted a mixed picture of China's economic recovery, with manufacturing activities improving, but property sales in many
Chinese cities remaining weak.
China's "economic landscape is unarguably dull, and the absence of excitement is perhaps the most salient feature," said John Browning,
managing director of BANDS Financial. He doesn't expect huge
stimulus to be announced during next week's Central Economic Work Conference,
as "Beijing's largesse will be reserved until after Trump is restored to the White House and the trade war formally begins." Top policymakers will gather at the conference to
agree on major economic goals for next year.
But the target for 2025 growth, one of the most closely-watched indicators globally for clues of Beijing's near-term policy
intentions, likely will not be officially announced until an annual parliament meeting in March.
During Trump's first term as president, the yuan weakened about 5% against the dollar after
the initial round of U.S.
tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018, and fell another 1.5% a year
later when trade tensions escalated. Growth worries and expectations of further monetary easing by Beijing pushed China's 10-year
treasury yields below 2% to record lows this week, worsening
the yield disadvantage against the U.S., and exerting downward pressure on the yuan. ING's Song expects the onshore yuan to
move within a band between 7.00-7.40 per dollar, but could fall further to 7.50 "if tariffs come in earlier or more aggressive than our forecasts." LEVELS
AT 03:47 GMT GMT INSTRUME CURRENT UP/DOWN( % CHANGE DAY'S DAY'S LOW NT vs USD -) VS.
YR-TO-DATE HIGH PREVIOUS CLOSE % Spot 7.255 0.09 -2.11 7.2518 7.2675 yuan <CNY=CFX S Offshore 7.2615 0.03
-1.87 7.2574 7.2733 yuan spot (Reporting by Shanghai newsroom;
Editing by Kim Coghill)
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